As the U.S. prepares to roll out an updated COVID-19 vaccine, a new study published in JAMA Network Open highlights its strong economic value—especially for older adults. Researchers from the University of Michigan, working with the CDC, found that vaccinating every person over age 65 with a single mRNA dose would save more money than it costs, thanks to reductions in deaths, hospitalizations, long- and short-term illness, and lost productivity.
Using a computer model, the team showed that broad vaccination could prevent 391 hospitalizations and 43 deaths per 100,000 people over 65, while middle-aged adults (50–64) would also see significant economic benefits. Even vaccinating healthy adults ages 18–49 could meet accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds under certain conditions. However, a second vaccine dose was cost-effective only for adults over 65, not for younger non-immunocompromised adults.
Lead author Lisa Prosser, PhD, and co-leader David Hutton, PhD, have conducted extensive vaccine cost-effectiveness research for the CDC. Their model accounts for vaccine cost, medical expenses, lost workdays, and post-COVID conditions like Long COVID. Notably, their earlier research found that the 2020–2021 national vaccine rollout more than paid for itself within a year.
The study also reflects real-world vaccination trends. COVID-19 deaths fell to 47,000 in 2024—down sharply from prior years—but updated vaccine uptake has lagged, with only 28% of Medicare adults over 65 and 23% of adults overall receiving the 2024–2025 shot.
Prosser cautions that declining hospitalization rates may make future economic gains appear smaller, even though vaccination still prevents thousands of cases annually. Current CDC guidance recommends at least one vaccine dose for everyone over six months old, and a second dose six months later for adults over 65 or those who are immunocompromised. The findings reinforce that vaccination remains both a life-saving and cost-saving strategy.
