A new study published on November 4th in the open-access journal PLOS Medicine warns that bloodstream infections caused by drug-resistant bacteria are expected to rise significantly across Europe by 2030. The research, led by Gwenan Knight of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, attributes much of this increase to Europe’s aging population.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains one of the most serious global health threats. Accurate projections of AMR trends are essential to design effective interventions and measure progress toward international goals. In this study, scientists analyzed data from more than 12 million routine blood tests collected in 29 European countries between 2010 and 2019. Using these data, they modeled future trends up to 2050, taking into account demographic changes.
The findings suggest that infection rates from resistant bacteria will continue to grow, with notable differences across countries and specific bacteria–antibiotic combinations. The rise is projected to be steeper in men than in women for most bacteria studied, and particularly high among people aged 74 years and older, while younger populations may experience stable or declining rates.
According to the researchers, ignoring age and sex factors in projections could lead to significant underestimation of the true future burden. Even under optimistic scenarios with strong public health measures, achieving a 10% reduction in resistant infections by 2030, as set by the United Nations, may only be feasible for about two-thirds of bacterial types examined.
Knight emphasized that preventing further increases in resistant bloodstream infections among older adults should be considered a major public health achievement, as demographic trends will continue to shape the future burden of antimicrobial resistance across Europe.
